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NWS Area Forecast Discussion
for the County Warning Area [CWA]: FFC
Issued by the Atlanta/Peachtree City, GA NWS forecast office.


000
FXUS62 KFFC 212359
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
655 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Through the short-term forecast period, the CWA remains situated
between the strong high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
and the western trough. The cold front currently located over
central Tennessee will make very little additional forward progress
as the blocking high remains firmly in place. This will keep warm,
moist southerly flow in place across the area.

As a result of this moist southerly flow, isolated to widely
scattered showers dot the area this afternoon. These spotty showers
will persist into this evening before largely retreating into far
north Georgia overnight. The earlier mention of isolated thunder in
north Georgia was removed from the grids at this point as mid-level
capping should help minimize the thunder risk.

The front will nudge back to the west a bit farther on Thursday as
the influence of the upper high increases. With no big focus for
shower development, most areas will remain dry and very warm on
Thursday. Included slight chance PoPs in the north Georgia mountains
where upslope flow could generate some spotty showers.

Temperatures will remain near or above record levels. Low
temperatures Thursday morning will likely set additional record warm
minimums as temperatures remain in the low-to-mid 60s. Additionally,
some forecast highs appear likely to be broken with highs soaring
into the upper 70s to lower 80s areawide.

RW


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Minimal changes made to the extended forecast, with the latest
models still on track with the previous forecast package. Adjusted
period 4 and day 7/8 for new model guidance, and adjusted QPF
through the extended to account for latest model solutions.
Overall, forecast continues to look wet, with weather systems
impacting the area every 2-3 days and lasting 1-2 days. Previous
forecast discussion follows.

31

/Issued 355 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018/

Not a lot of differences between the GFS and ECMWF through the
weekend, at least with respect to the large scale pattern. Still
some noticeable differences concerning the smaller scale features
with the GFS continuing to be stronger/faster with the main short
wave and associated cold front. Still looking at increasing rain
chances by Saturday across the northwest with best chances
centered on Sunday. Even with its more aggressive nature, the GFS
stalls the cold front somewhere across central Georgia by late
Sunday in response to the digging short wave over the central
U.S., keeping a good chance for lingering showers across the area
through Monday. Flattened upper pattern should ease the near
record temperatures we`ve been experiencing back a little closer
to seasonal normals for the beginning of next week.

Still enough instability shown for the weekend system to keep the
mention of thunder in the forecast. Plenty of uncertainty concerning
the strength of the dynamics/low-level forcing with this system so
chances for any isolated strong or severe thunderstorms remains
fairly uncertain as well.

20

&&

.CLIMATE...

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885
                1925
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958
                                        1971
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958

Records for 02-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963
                            1963
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963
                1949
                1917
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963

Records for 02-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939
                1980
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963
                1909

Records for 02-24

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989
                                                    1967
                                                    1947
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989
                                                    1947
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901
                1930

Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Spotty light showers may intermittently affect TAF sites through
this evening before diminishing in coverage. Ceilings overnight will
likely drop into at least the MVFR range with IFR ceilings again
possible by early Thursday morning. A gradual improvement
expected through the afternoon. Winds will be mainly light southeast
overnight...trending to south southwest by early Thursday
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on overnight ceiling trends.
High confidence other elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  78  59  77 /  20  20  10  10
Atlanta         63  79  60  76 /  20  10  10  10
Blairsville     61  74  57  71 /  40  30  20  20
Cartersville    62  80  60  77 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        64  82  61  79 /  10   5   5  10
Gainesville     62  76  58  73 /  30  20  10  20
Macon           64  81  59  79 /  10  10  10  10
Rome            63  80  60  78 /  30  20  10  10
Peachtree City  62  80  58  78 /  20  10  10  10
Vidalia         65  82  61  80 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...41

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather